دراسة وتحليل العلاقة بين الإنفاق التنموي وإيرادات القطاع غير النفطي والنمو الاقتصادي للقطاع غير النفطي في ليبيا خلال الفترة (2000-2019)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between developmental expenditure and non-oil revenues, between developmental expenditure and non-oil GDP, and between non-oil revenues and non-oil GDP by using a semi-annual data during the period 2000-2019. The study employs descriptive analysis of the reality of the established variables and their development during the study period. Standard analysis is also employed the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model) to test the relationship between these variables in the short and long term. The study concluded that developmental expenditure did not represent a large percentage of the volume of public expenditures, non-oil revenues were small, and non-oil GDP was modest during the study period. By conducting the ARDL test, the study concluded that there is non-significant, relationship directing between developmental expenditure and non-oil GDP. The results also concluded that there is a mutual positive significant long-term relationship between developmental expenditure and non-oil revenues. In addition, there is no relationship between non-oil revenues and non-oil GDP. Based on these results, the study reached a number of recommendations that would support and increase both the quantity and quality of developmental expenditure and non-oil revenues to enhance and increase the volume of economic growth in the non-oil sector.